Happy Labor Day!
Yes, the heat is the big story. For now.
Today’s video/post will focus more on the forecast challenges ahead toward the weekend and the following week. The tropics will play a significant part in this.
The players on the field: A fading cold front pushes in from the north Friday Another cold front pushes in from the north and stalls NEAR us over the weekend/next week
TS Gordon (upgraded since I recorded the video) will transport moisture north
Other tropical systems possible in the Gulf and east coast
Timeline The Friday front will help increase the t-storm coverage, but just how much is in question. High pressures like the one this week are stubborn to give way to cold fronts like this. So we plan to go slow with the rain chance adjustment until we get a better handle on how much weakness the northern part of the High will have by that point.
The weekend will likely feature a break from the Friday fading front and the next one that slides down. This is important for most of the area football games Saturday. A break would be nice to get the games in, but the window for such is too narrow to have high confidence in. Just be aware of this.
It will be that second front that will likely stall nearby Sunday/early next week. This is very important to nail down. It will act as a funnel to pull in moisture from leftovers of “Gordon” and perhaps even another system that develops in the Gulf during this period. These setups can leave to rounds of heavy rain and of course, flooding. The center of high pressure to our east will be the one in charge of this one. The flow around it will steer that moisture feed and determine where that front ends up stalling. Some of the data suggests IL/MO and central IN would take the brunt of that. Others say right along the Ohio River.
High pressure may try to get re-established next week with more issues with the tropics and passing cold fronts. But the data is all over the place with the September 11-16th period. Very low confidence for now.
So while the heat and dry weather will be the rule the next few days, but aware of the potential showing up just around the corner. As always, we are watching it!!
Make it a Goode Morning!!