The radar is certainly going to get a workout the next several days.
Alert Days have been issued for later Saturday into Sunday. Mainly for heavy rain potential and isolated tornado threat Sunday.
A cold front will move in from the north this afternoon. Most of the thunderstorm action will develop near it...which would be mainly north of I-64. However, even a few thunderstorms will be possible over central KY, just not as great of coverage. Keep in mind, any downpours that develops will have torrential rainfall rates.
Friday: The front will line up closer to I-64 during this time. Expect the coverage of thunderstorms to increase. Once again heavy rain and isolated gusty winds will be the concern with these. Some 1-2″ rain totals will be possible.
Friday night: Coverage of rain decreases to isolated.
Saturday: Most of the day looks cloudy with a few showers around. As of now, the heaviest of rain looks to be to our west during the daytime period.
Saturday night/Sunday: Heavy rain bands increase from the west. This is the period we will need to watch for rainfall rates nearing 2.5″ per hour! That can certainly cause flash flooding if they move slow enough or we end up with multiple rounds. Both of which are possible.
This is the challenging part. The remnants of Gordon will be merging with a low pressure to become “one” basically. Its track through the Ohio Valley will be absolutely crucial on timing and rainfall amounts. Some data suggests areas to our north near I-70 will take the brunt of the rain (6″+) while some guide it closer to the Ohio River. My concern is that the more south idea makes more sense and could certainly lead to problems. This setup will not go as planned...they rarely do when you involve a tropical/merger like this. Current thinking is 1-3″ of rain as a grand total by Sunday evening is a good bet. But these amounts could easily double. Please stay close to the forecast updates and let’s hope we can trend to the lower end.
The track of the low will need to be watched on its SE side for a low-end, weak tornado threat. As of now, southern KY would be more at risk for this but it will really depend on the track/heating that day guys. We will loop back around to this potential once we get more info, but just something to store in the back of your mind.
The video will explain all of this better (hopefully).
Make it a Goode Morning!