The system for next week is still there, but local impacts remain uncertain.
The cold blast, however, is looking like a lock-in.
11/12-11/13 Rain to Snow Setup, Flurries/Snow Showers After
We have one weak wave passing through today with spotty showers for southern KY.
The next system moves in late Thursday night into Friday morning. A chilly rain is expected with this one. I still don’t see any risk for the cold air to change anything over to frozen levels within WAVE Country before it exits Friday morning. Even if we did, it would be quite minor.
There remains a small piece that will zip by later Friday night/early Saturday. The atmosphere will be colder, yet drier. So anything that fall could fall as snow flurries, but very limited in coverage and intensity. Having said that, don’t be surprised if you see a few flakes flying around Friday night north of I-64. Snow showers will be possible closer to Indy/Cincy.
This one still has many questions to it. How far south and west does it form? How quickly does it move through? And will it cut north or get suppressed south?
All very valid at this point.
The data trends over the past 24 hours have been to phase the northern and southern branches together actually form a winter storm. If they phase west of I-65, this guy is going to want to cut north and would mean rain for most of the event Tuesday and ending as light snow flurries/snow showers after it.
If it phases more to the east of I-65 to our south, it will have a better chance of going up near/east of the mountains. This would allow for some rain but a quick changeover to snow.
The GFS is going with the faster/east idea. Therefore more of a snow deal.
The EURO is going with the slower/west idea. Therefore more of a rain to light snow setup. Although its ensembles favor more of the GFS idea.
The depth of the Arctic air blast and high pressure strength off the east coast seem to be the players on the field driving this.
Is there a chance the cold air is stronger than indicated and this misses us completely to the southeast? Yes.
This one certainly needs more time in the oven, but please keep in mind that the cold air blast will be more of the headline here than the snow.
At least, for now :)
The video explains this all in more detail so be sure to watch!