One of our colder mornings of the season so far...with no snow.
A warmer pattern will develop this week. The main story will evolve all around a fairly strong low pressure that looks to get “cutoff” from the main flow. Which means timing/track issues with this one.
Thursday/Friday: Cutoff low. One to watch.
12/23-24 Rain to snow setup
The main challenge this week will be tracking energy that is near Alaska now, traveling southeast into the Texas by Wednesday. Once it gets to that level, the players on the field around it could lead to various outcomes.
#1- It could slow and phase with the northern jet stream. This would bring in a surge of really warm air, heavy rain and thunderstorms. Wrap around snow possible before ending.
#2- It remains cutoff and never phases. It will “drift” to the east on nearly the same track as this previous system over the weekend. A rain setup for them and we could miss out with no precipitation.
#3- Low drifts north as it wants to phase but is slow to do it or never truly gets there. This would allow for a potential low to move through the south, adjusting to east/northeast motion. There is a pocket of cold air on its southern side that could allow for some wintry weather if rates are there. The track for this one would be crucial on the wintry part as it could very well mean the southern states get a taste of wintry weather before it surrenders to the phasing on its NE track. We would just get rain. So if you want snow, this needs to drift north and remain deep.
Time-frame for this would be Thursday night into Saturday to get through this one. As you can see, there are varying possibilities but to get the wintry side....will be a challenge as several factors have the line up. The overall headline will be a warmer system with rain and the national headlines would be flooding in the Carolina’s with the rapid snow melt+rainfall.
Let’s give this one more time in the oven and just see how things evolve the next few days.
Looking ahead, we look to warm up for a good little stretch before blocking kicks back in. This could be good as the cold air “resets” up north and prepares for an attack. The data trends aim toward this “attack” toward Christmas Week with some southern jet stream energy at play. Hmmm.
We shall see...