Overall, the warmer pattern is going to last a good 7 days for WAVE Country. In fact, there is chance we could score a daily high temperature of a least 50° in this pattern.
12/21 Possible rain to snow setup
12/24 Possible rain to snow setup
12/29 Possible rain to snow setup
Skipping right into later next week....
It will once again be about a cutoff low pressure. The issue here is whether or not it will roll out and phasing with a northern jet stream branch wave? If so, we could see a winter storm develop near us and roll to the east. Looks to be a classic rain to snow setup.
However, there is a risk the cutoff low will “miss its ride” with the northern branch and we end up quiet and fairly normal with temperatures.
There is horrible agreement with the data trends I have been looking at for this setup as timing is going to make or break this deal. It just is too far out to get timing errors resolved to help guide us into the right direction. I will look at this more tomorrow but I urge caution for now with the model watchers :)
No doubt this one is tough as it involves a race. There will be a noticeable shift in our upper air pattern across Canada. The question is how much of that will influence the lower 48 and when? The models certainly see the potential of the diving cold which leads to low pressures developing on the southern edges of that. The pattern shifting still supports 1-2 winter storms developing for the last days of December into January. But will the first one make it in time for Christmas? It will be close. It would be a rain to snow setup but we just need one inch to get that magical White Christmas in the books :)
The risk right now I’d say is about 30% which is higher than the normal 10%, but still low. I hope we can see that climb but I don’t control the weather :)
Beyond that period, winter shows itself in a big way.