12/21 Potential rain to brief snow setup
12/24-25 Potential rain to snow setup
12/29-1/1 Potential rain to snow setup
Note that the items on the list are “rain to snow” setups. That is because we will have some cold air to work with as we enter late December, but it will be in/out of the area. Cold attacks like this lead to a more active storm track but come at the sacrifice that they will start as rain.
Let’s dive in...
Next Thursday Friday (20th/21st), still a question of phasing of the northern energy moving across the country and another cutoff low pressure moving into Texas. Modeling is struggling with the features with a trend toward the northern feature stealing the show. This can still lead to some moisture in the area but it would be a quick-hitting system that will struggle to have time to transition from rain to snow. My caution on this is that they are very close to phasing with some of the ensemble data. In other words, if this trend develops a slower, more organized system could develop which would then lead to a risk for it to go to wintry weather. But I can certainly see why it would remain a bit split based on the upper air pattern. Needs more time in the oven.
Christmas Week.... this one remains tough. Why? As I mentioned above, there will be just enough cold air diving down to lead to 1-2 (at least) storm systems to form. Timing of these features will impact the phasing/track and yes...the lovely rain/snow line. Having said that, we cannot remove the risk for a rain to snow potential near Christmas. I don’t want you guys to get too disappointed or excited. It just is nearly impossible to time it out to one particular morning right now. Once we get within a 7 day window, we will have a much better idea of the features to track and we can forecast from there.
It will likely remain active through the new year with more wintry potential. Just stay close to the blog for updates as I know this is a busy travel period and specifics count.
I will discuss all of this in the video PLUS a look at data trends into January.