We are now officially in winter and in a new year. So where is the snow?
Well, for one...don’t panic BOTS’ fans. The northern hemisphere is going to get a shake-up over the next 12-16 days. Our concern then is where do “we” fit into that change?
Tuesday Rain may end as flurries
1/12 Rain to snow setup
Yes, I know. There aren’t many items on the list today. Anytime we see a pattern change coming down the pipe, you have to go slow with the details/evolution of it. There is no doubt we are in a warmer pattern that remains active with these southern/cutoff lows. Anything wintry from these has to be manufactured on their own...and that is just too much of a struggle right now.
The Arctic is warming. We can see evidence of that. That typically leads to the really cold stuff getting spread out to the lower latitudes of the northern hemisphere, which is where we reside of course. The problem is that we just don’t know where that cold air will go “attack"? It could be eastern Europe or Asia. Perhaps eastern United States. All are up for grabs at this point until we can see blocking signal in the river stream of air above us. Once we can pick up on that, we can then get an idea of impact/timing/location of the shifting cold. We stand at a 50/50 shot as of today of getting this.
So why still talk about it? There are other signals showing up that get too technical to discuss on here.
What we are watching for: Jet stream pattern over eastern Pacific/Alaska. They need high pressure to lock in there to aim the cold more toward us.
Also, a blocking pattern near Greenland. Some of the models does show these features so that is why there is still the risk for a harsh winter reality to come.
It will just take some more time. Perhaps the last 10 days of January at this point.
I know that is frustrating for winter fans but we don’t control these things. But we can certainly pick up on their signals/behavior.
Expect many blog updates over the next several days as some key data I am waiting for rolls in.
Until then, hang in there and BOTS!