Watching a manageable snow event toward the weekend, the focus will will remain on moisture increasing in general in terms of flooding concerns.
Having said that...
NOTE: Just in since the video... Wind Advisory for most locations until 7pm
Late Friday Night/Saturday Morning Period of rain/mix going to a burst of moderate, wet snow. Accumulations likely for some.
Sunday/Monday Light mix early otherwise this looks to be rain.
Next Tuesday/Wednesday Still a mix potential with this one but rain still is winning the race.
Several other items to close out February that will continue the theme of rain/snow.
The Friday night wave is interesting is that it will be fairly potent, but small....and fast. It will battle a warm layer that is in the process of cooling. And finally, a warm(ish) ground. This is a system of compromise. It will have the energy and colder air aloft to develop dynamic cooling for a burst of moderate snow. The timing of the darkness of night will aid in that transfer. Both of these are pluses for snowfall. The minuses are the warmer ground (which higher snowfall rate will overcome briefly), temperatures being near or even just above freezing to start...then dropping downward. Fast pacing will limit duration of this event and therefore amounts. Track will only feature a stripe of heavier snow. Little to nothing north of it, and a mix or just rain south. This means only about 40% of our 28 counties run the risk at a couple inches of snow (isolated higher). 30% of you will just get flurries at best or nothing at all. And the other 30% will just get rain. I will highlight these areas on the video. Even in the 40%, snow-covered roads will turn to slush then just plain wet as sunrise moves in. The snow will melt steadily throughout the day but if skies can stay cloudy, some snow could stick around into Saturday night. Due to that 40% of the snow-coverage, Winter Weather Advisories are likely to come out. Not a big event but hey, it’s something!!! BOTS!
Sunday into Monday is fairly sloppy in the setup. No real organized low passes through. This means scattered light rain that could still have a mix involved at times. Nothing major showing up with this.
Next week’s system... It remains complex with many moving parts and still some question on whether we will face one low pressure or two on the maps. If two, one of them has to surrender and that one could be “our” low. This could cut down on the rain/snow chance and heavy rain threat. Which the latter is certainly good news. If “our” low does not weaken, we may very well find ourselves more into a heavy rain threat with snow VERY close to our region to the north. Still a complex setup we need to monitor.
Beyond that system, colder air will continue to try to get more and more involved with several storm systems. It is just too early to know what that means in terms of rain or snow. Stay tuned...!!