Taking a break from any “snowtalk” as the pattern is a warm one for this update. Colder weather is showing up in the long term but nothing wintry to discuss as of today.
This week will be about the warm surge coming our way and the risk for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms.
The “change” in our weather kicks in Wednesday with a warm front. A few showers will be possible as it zips by but most of the day is trending dry and warmer. It may be overcast much of the time but data still supports numbers well into the 60s with the city able to at least touch 70 degrees.
A strong/severe line of thunderstorms will fire up Wednesday evening well to our west. This line will ease down in intensity as marches east into WAVE Country very early Thursday morning. We will need to monitor this for a heavy rain threat if it doesn’t fade quick enough.
The main challenge in this forecast then takes shape for midday Thursday and Thursday afternoon. The cold front is likely to slow down and crawl east. This could allow for us to warm up substantially into the 70s with fuel then readily available for a new round of thunderstorms to develop.
But where? They could develop on on top of us... or to our east. That part is not locked in as the midday break/heating will be crucial on this.
The concern then lies with the wind energy this system has. It is very strong. If thunderstorms can take advantage of that, we will find ourselves into a severe weather event. We have lucked out so far this season in avoiding that combination. Let’s hope this one keeps that trend going. We won’t know the answer on this until we are 24 hours out but given the wind energy we do see now with the system, it deserves attention.
T-storms or not, it will be another windy period Thursday afternoon and night with another wind advisory certainly possible.
We turn colder for the weekend but nothing crazy. Highs in the 40s.
More to come on Thursday’s front as we get more data...