LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
MO TOM (Post Position 4; Odds 20-1)
Owner: GMB Racing
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Sire-dam: Uncle Mo-Caroni
Fastest Bris speed figure: 95, Risen Star
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 88, Lecomte
Last race: Fourth in Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds
The case for Mo Tom
He's got a devastating kick when he gets a chance to display it without being impeded. After checking badly when horses stopped in front of him at the three-sixteenth pole in his last two races, he's due for some good luck. He never runs a bad race, and he'll be flying, and that will win a lot of Derbys. If the Saints can win the Super Bowl, a horse owned by their owner Tom Benson and his wife, Gayle, can win the Derby.
The case against Mo Tom
He's unlucky and why should that change? He used up his good luck in being in a four-way tie for the No. 20 spot in the field in a tiebreaker based on stakes earnings. Does anyone think Corey Lanerie will take a shot trying to go to the inside in the stretch to save some ground after the last two debacles? So we're likely to see such an avowed late-closer coming extremely wide. Whether you're a Bris or Beyer enthusiast, both sets of speed figures say a lot of other horses are just faster. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby after breaking his maiden at Ellis Park.
Post 4 went from Seattle Slew in 1977 until Super Saver in 2010 without producing a winner. Trainer Tom Amoss' best finish with four prior Derby starters was fifth-place Mylute in 2013. Corey Lanerie's last Derby out was Harry's Holiday, 16th in 2014. The Louisiana Derby