LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
PATCH (Post position 20; 30-1 odds)
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Sire-dam: Union Rags-Windyindy
Fastest Bris speed figure: 101, Gulfstream maiden race
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 89, Louisiana Derby and Gulfstream maiden
Last race: Second in Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Race Course
Why he can win:
In his limited career, he's shown he's fast and a runner. Another step forward from being a good second in the Louisiana Derby off a maiden victory could put him in the winner's circle in this evenly matched field. His closing style could serve him well.
Why he won't:
While Big Brown in 2008 won the Derby off only three prior career starts, you go back to the first filly winner Regret in 1915 for the only other one.
Calumet Farm would expand its record to a ninth Kentucky Derby victory as owner. He's only been ridden by Eclipse Award winners Javier Castellano, John Velazquez and Tyler Gaffalione. Patch is the second one-eyed Derby horse trained by Pletcher, the other being Pollard's Vision, 17th in 2004.