LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
LOOKIN AT LEE
Owner: L and N Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Sire-dam: Lookin At Lucky-Langara Lass
Fastest Bris speed figure: 94, Arkansas Derby
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 91, Arkansas Derby
Last race: Third in Arkansas Derby
Why he can win:
He's a horse who takes a lot of racing —in this case nine races and counting — to improve. Big strapping colt needs racing to get in shape, and each start has gotten incrementally better. He's on the lines of a Giacomo, who kept coming at the end of graded stakes races and finally smashed through the door at 50-1 in the 2005 Derby. He looks the part training, coming off the track full of energy. Lookin At Lee is a son of champion Lookin At Lucky, who deserves to at least sire a Derby winner after his own horrendous trip as the 6-1 favorite in the 2010 Derby, the future Preakness victor rallying late to be sixth.
Why he won't:
He's as honest as they come but just a notch below the best. Needs a fast pace to set up his late kick, and he won't have the benefit of the wicked speed duels that surfaced in the Derby before the points system was installed.
Would be the first horse to break its maiden at Ellis Park to win the Derby. He also won the Ellis Park Juvenile. Corey Lanerie is a 12-time Churchill Downs titlist.