LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
GORMLEY (Post position 18; 15-1 odds)
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. Jerome Moss
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Sire-dam: Malibu Moon-Race to Urga
Fastest Bris speed figure: 102, Sham Stakes
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 94, Sham Stakes
Last race: First in Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park
Why he'll win:
He showed his quality by being a Grade 1 winner at 2 and 3. Victor Espinoza knows how to win the Derby, having done so three times. If trainer John Shirreffs can win the Kentucky Derby with the Moss' 50-1 Giacomo in 2005, who was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, he certainly can win with a Santa Anita Derby winner.
Why he won't:
His two defeats were drubbings when he faced really good horses: the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the San Felipe won by the now-sidelined Mastery. The Santa Anita Derby was dreadfully slow — Gormley was assigned an 88 Beyer speed figure — the horses crawling home. After producing the Kentucky Derby winner in four of the past five years, the California-based horses do not appear to be as good this year.
Should Gormley win, Victor Espinoza would join Calvin Borel as the only riders to win the Derby three out of four years. He also would become only the fourth jockey to win the Derby at least four times (Bill Shoemaker four, Bill Hartack and Eddie Arcaro five apiece). The Spendthrift Farm stallion Malibu Moon already has sired a Derby winner in Orb (2013).