LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
Owner: Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Sire-dam: Into Mischief-Halo Humor
Fastest Bris speed figure: 99, Blue Grass
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 92, Blue Grass
Last race: Second in Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland
Why he'll win:
He never runs a bad race and improves every race - that knocking at the door will get you crashing through at some point. Chad Brown has had one of the fastest ascents of any trainer in years, and this could be his next conquest. Has stalking style that has won recent Derbies. He finished well in the Blue Grass to suggest he could handle another eighth-mile.
Why he won't:
He couldn't get past a tiring (and previously winless) Irap in the Blue Grass, so we don't know about wanting to go another eighth-mile. His pedigree might be just short of 1 1/4 miles.
Jockey Joel Rosario won the 2013 Kentucky Derby on Orb. Practical Joke — great name, given his breeding (by Into Mischief and out of Halo Humor) — was a $240,000 Keeneland September yearling.