LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
STATE OF HONOR (Post position 6; 30-1 odds)
Owner: Conrad Farms
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Sire-dam: To Honor and Serve-State Cup
Fastest Bris speed figure: 97, Florida Derby
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 91, Sam Davis
Last race: Second in Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in Florida
Why he'll win:
It's the old "lesser-regarded half of a trainer's entry" angle: Bet the horse no one is talking about. He has trained very well at Churchill Downs. Since getting off Woodbine's synthetic surface and onto true dirt this year, he's been very consistent, with three seconds and a third.
Why he can't:
Don't see a win in those four dirt starts. Other horses are better. He could get caught up in an unfavorable pace near the front. Only twice in 10 starts has he made up ground the final eighth-mile. He doesn't want to go that far.
Only twice has a horse born in Canada won the Kentucky Derby: Northern Dancer in 1964 and Sunny's Halo in 1983.