LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
HENCE (Post position 8; 15-1 odds)
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Sire-dam: Street Boss-Floating Island
Fastest Bris speed figure: 103, Sunland Derby
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 97, Sunland Derby
Last race: First in Sunland Derby at Sunland Park in New Mexico
Why he'll win:
He not only finished strong and fast to dominate the Sunland Derby, the horses coming out of the race have done very well, headed by fourth-place finisher Irap winning Keeneland's Blue Grass and runner-up Conquest Mo Money finishing a good second in the Arkansas Derby to champion Classic Empire. Trainer Steve Asmussen isn't one to make his horses work fast, but Hence's have been sensational - and that's a great sign.
Why he won't:
He's the "wise-guy" horse — where you look smart by picking horse who figures to be attractive odds — and they never win. He ran too big in the Sunland Derby and will have a hard time replicating that. He still has to show he can beat the very best horses.
A win would give famed Calumet Farm a record-extending ninth Derby victory and its first under the ownership of Brad Kelley. Florent Geroux would be the first French-born jockey to win the Derby since Jean Cruguet on 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.