LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
FAST AND ACCURATE (Post position 3; 50-1 odds)
Owner: Kendall Hansen, Skychai Racing and Bode Miller
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Channing Hill
Sire-dam: Hansen-It's Heidi's Dance
Fastest Bris speed figure: 86, Spiral
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 82, Spiral
Last race: First in Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky.
Why he'll win:
His name says it all. He's found his best stride, winning three in a row, and has been working very well. The Louisville-based Skychai Racing folks are good luck, buying into his sire, Hansen, right before that colt won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Now they've bought into Fast and Accurate shortly before the Derby. The newest part-owner, former pro skier Bode Miller, will give him chalk talks on how to grab the gold. Just keep him out of his native state of Pennsylvania (where he's 0 for 3, and 3-for-3 everywhere else) and he'll be fine.
Why he won't:
He doesn't want to go that far. He's a grass/synthetic horse, his worst performance coming in his lone dirt start in a maiden race in Philadelphia. He came home woefully slow in the Spiral. The last Derby winner who previously ran for a claiming price was Charismatic in 1999. Before that it was Dust Commander in 1970.
Fast and Accurate is only the fourth horse to be supplemented to the Derby. That's necessary to make them eligible to run if they're not nominated for a far-cheaper price well in advance of the race, in this case costing the owners $200,000 to compete. Mike Maker now is the first trainer to have two horses supplemented to the Derby, his first coming last year with Oscar Nominated, also the Spiral winner.