LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
SONNETEER (Post position 12; 50-1 odds)
Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Sire-dam: Midnight Lute-Ours
Fastest Bris speed figure: 94, Arkansas Derby
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 90, Arkansas Derby
Last race: Fourth in Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
Why he'll win:
As much as any horse, he will relish Churchill Downs' long stretch and the Derby's extra sixteenth-mile. He's another one who has been knocking at the door and could bust through big-time in the Derby.
Why he won't:
There's got to be a reason he's a maiden after 10 starts, including seven against other winless horses. The last horse to earn its first win in the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933. Sir Barton in 1919 and Buchanan in 1884 are the only others.
Trainer Keith and jockey Kent Desormeaux would be the first brother team to win the Derby. Sonneteer is one of three horses in the Derby owned by Calumet Farm, the historic horse farm in Lexington that could extend its record for Derby victories as an owner to nine.