LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
ROYAL MO (Alternate, 20-1)
Owner Mr. and Mrs. Jerome Moss
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Sire-dam: Uncle Mo-Royal Irish Lass
Why he'll win:
He has only run one poor race, that coming in Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes. The Grade 3 Robert Lewis winner ran well from post 13 to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby, losing by only a length. If John Shirreffs can win the Kentucky Derby with a 50-1 shot like Giacomo who had yet to win a stakes, he can win with a graded-stakes winner.
The racing gods owe his sire, Uncle Mo, a 2-year-old champion who was scratched the day before the 2011 Kentucky Derby. The racing gods also are old, and are rooting for 54-year-old jockey Gary Stevens to win a fourth Derby.
Why he won't:
He needs a scratch before Friday morning to even get in the field. His Santa Anita Derby finishing time was crawling. He's 2-for-2 going wire to wire and 0 for 4 otherwise, and there's too much speed for him to have it easy up front.
Should Gary Stevens win, he would be a few months shy of surpassing Bill Shoemaker as the oldest rider to capture the Derby, which Shoemaker did in 1986 on Ferdinand.