LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days before the run for the roses.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner prevails.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby.
MASTER PLAN (Alternate, 50-1 odds)
Owner: China Horse Club, WinStar Farm and Al Shaqab Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 5 2-1-1
Sire-dam: Twirling Cand-Sage Mist
Fastest Bris speed figure: 96 in Gulfstream's Pulpit
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 96 in Gulfstream's Pulpit
Last race: Third in UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai
Why he'll win:
As an $850,000 2-year-old purchase at the Ocala Breeders' Sales' March auction, he was meant to that type of horse. He's already run 1 3/16 miles, finishing a close third in the $2 million UAE Derby, taking the worst of it by having to ship to Dubai.
Why he won't:
He's not fast enough. Besides, he's unlikely to get in -- requiring two scratches by 9 a.m. Friday to draw in -- and if he does he must break from post 20.
If he finishes in the top four, he'll have the best finish for any horse coming out of the UAE Derby. WinStar Farm won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver.