LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - The Advantage Player thinks Week 4 is a breakout week, a chance to turn a slump into a rally. Check out these three picks.
Alabama (-18.5) at Vanderbilt
Not too often can you say Alabama isn't getting any respect, but I do not think this line is respecting Alabama. It should be closer to 21. Vanderbilt is getting credit for its great defensive performances so far this year (allowing 13 points combined all season) but was facing challenged offenses. Vandy should shut Alabama down offensively for a half, but the Tide typically only struggles against teams with competent offenses, and Vandy doesn't have that. I like Alabama at anything under 21.
Old Dominion (+27) at Virgina Tech
This line is fishy. Virginia Tech is getting an overwhelming majority of the bets, so you would expect the line to move above 28 from its 27.5 opener. Instead, its down to 27 or 26.5 in some places. This is a look-ahead game for VT with the big home date against Clemson next week. One has to wonder how much the Hokies will care. In their last bodybag home game, they "only" beat Delaware 27-0. Though VT is coming off a 64-17 win at ECU, the Pirates may be the worst-coached team in the country. ODU is coached a bit better, and is a bit more competent. Wait and see if the line moves to 28, but I like ODU even at 26 or 27.
Mississippi State (+6.5) at Georgia
Mississippi State has been riding the no-respect card so far this year. After a 37-7 demolishing of LSU last week, the Bulldogs go on the road to face a Georgia team that I think is one of the most overrated in the country. Georgia is getting hype from beating a Notre Dame team on the road that probably isn't that good, and looked so-so against Samford last week. MSU may not win, but I expect it to keep things close enough to cover the 6.5. I don't see this line getting to 7, so you – might as well take 6.5 now.