(Source: National Weather Service)
Minor flooding continues along the Ohio River at Tell City, Cannelton, and Louisville.
Synoptic models continue to advertise an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Saturday night across much of the region. This range has been very consistent over the past few days. As with any convective, long term event, some locally higher amounts will be possible depending on where multiple axes of heavier precipitation develop. The most likely geographical area to get the most rain will be those locations west of I-65.
This rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to excessive runoff through the period. This will result in flooding issues in the typical low-land and flood prone areas and potentially some flash flooding. In addition, ongoing river flooding will become worse with time as the runoff makes its way into the rivers.
Current river forecasts that are out are based on forecasts that contain 72 hours of future rainfall. Thus, the current forecasts capture rainfall through Saturday morning. The forecasts that will be issued later this morning will cover the majority of the rainfall from this series of events - through Sunday morning.
Some of the following stage information comes from various ensemble model packages, and is likely to change as new data are ingested by those models. Other data is based on current official forecasts.
**Also remember that the rain that will be responsible for the rises on the rivers hasn't even fallen yet, so significant river stage forecast changes should be expected over the coming days.**
The river from Louisville to Tell City is forecast to reach moderate flood levels. This could occur by late Friday afternoon at Tell City, Saturday morning at Cannelton, and early Sunday morning at Louisville. At least minor flooding is predicted at Clifty Creek, with moderate flooding possible.
...Green River and Rough River...
At Dundee, minor flooding is forecast by Friday.
At least minor flooding is expected at Woodbury today and Rochester Friday night. Munfordville and Alvaton will approach flood stage, but are not forecast to hit flood stage at this time.
...Rolling Fork River...
Boston is forecast to rise to flood stage this weekend and has a chance to rise to moderate.