LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days out.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner will prevail.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby -- including the perilous exercise of handicapping the Racing Gods.
Notes: Final Fractions reflects how fast the horse ran the last eighth-mile and last three-eighths of a mile in its 1 1/8-mile prep race. The Final Fraction Theory rules out horses who ran the last eighth slower than 13.0 and the last three-eighths in slower than 38.0. Bris and Beyer speed figures are ratings designed to compute how fast a horse ran taking into account track conditions as a means of comparing horses from different tracks and races.
3. PROMISES FULFILLED (30-1)
Owner: Robert Baron
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Last race: ninth, Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park
Fastest Bris speed figure: 104, Fountain of Youth
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 96, Fountain of Youth
Final fractions in last race: You don't want to know (16.27, 44.85)
Why Promises Fulfilled can win
Nobody thinks he can get the 1 1/4 miles; they let him get away with a slow pace and he shows the grit of his dad, the Dale Romans-trained 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford. Well, he is named Promises Fulfilled. Money can't buy the Derby, and he was a bargain as a $37,000 yearling.
Why he won't
No horse who was ninth in his prior start, especially by 35 lengths, wins the Derby. Iron Liege in 1957 is the last horse to win the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in its final prep — and he was fifth, not ninth. There are too many other horses who will be up close to the pace to let him steal anything.
Corey Lanerie finished second in last year's Derby on Lookin At Lee. Dale Romans has had eight Derby starters, his best finish being a pair of thirds. No Louisville-born trainer has won the Derby in at least modern times and perhaps never. This is the first Derby starter for owner Robert Baron.