LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days out.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner will prevail.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby -- including the perilous exercise of handicapping the Racing Gods.
Notes: Final Fractions reflects how fast the horse ran the last eighth-mile and last three-eighths of a mile in its 1 1/8-mile prep race. The Final Fraction Theory rules out horses who ran the last eighth slower than 13.0 and the last three-eighths in slower than 38.0. Bris and Beyer speed figures are ratings designed to compute how fast a horse ran taking into account track conditions as a means of comparing horses from different tracks and races.
15. INSTILLED REGARD (50-1)
Owner: OXO Equine
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Last race: 4th, Santa Anita Derby
Fastest Bris speed figure: 102, Santa Anita Derby
Faster Beyer speed figure: 92, Los Al Futurity, Lecomte
Why Instilled Regard can win
The son of Arch could appreciate the added distance and getting away from the California tracks. He ran well at the Fair Grounds, with its long stretch, winning the Lecomte. He was too far back in the Santa Anita Derby and had no chance against those slow fractions. He could be like Charismatic in 1999, a well-beaten fourth in the San Anita who thrives with the switch to Churchill Downs. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer knows how to win races: His 7,434 victories rank No. 3 all time. If Mine That Bird can win at 50-1, so can Instilled Regard.
Why he won't
Reading between the lines, Hollendorfer did not want to come to the Derby, a race in which he was third last year with Battle of Midway. In a deep year, he's just not good enough.
23-year-old Drayden Van Dyke was born in Louisville and attended Iroquois High School, practically growing up in the barns of trainers Jimmy Baker and Tom Proctor. This is his first Derby. Instilled Regard is the first horse owned by Lawrence Best's OXO Equine. Post 15 has produced the Derby winner three times since 2000, including Triple Crown hero American Pharoah in 2015, and five times since 1984 — good for a healthy 8.9 win percentage out of 56 prior starters. The Santa Anita Derby has produced 17 Kentucky Derby winners, including eight which got beat in California's biggest Derby prep.