LOUISVILLE, KY (WAVE) - No race is tougher to ferret out than the Kentucky Derby, which at times can seem as perplexing 30 minutes before post time as it is 30 days out.
It can look so easy after the fact, so here we helpfully tell you in advance why the winner will prevail.
Of course we do it for every horse in the field -- as well as explaining why you can't possibly cash a ticket betting that horse.
So let us do the detective work as we case out the Kentucky Derby -- including the perilous exercise of handicapping the Racing Gods.
Notes: Final Fractions reflects how fast the horse ran the last eighth-mile and last three-eighths of a mile in its 1 1/8-mile prep race. The Final Fraction Theory rules out horses who ran the last eighth slower than 13.0 and the last three-eighths in slower than 38.0. Bris and Beyer speed figures are ratings designed to compute how fast a horse ran taking into account track conditions as a means of comparing horses from different tracks and races.
21. BLENDED CITIZEN (50-1)
Note: Needs a scratch by 9 a.m. Friday to run
Owner: Greg Hall and SAYJAY Racing
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Jockey: Kyle Frey
Last race: 5th, Toyota Blue Grass, Keeneland
Fastest Bris speed figure: 100, Jeff Ruby Steaks, El Camino Real Derby
Fastest Beyer speed figure: 88, Blue Grass
Why Blended Citizen can win
He has looked great training with strong works. Doug O'Neill has won two Derbys (I'll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist and 2016) and knows how to get the job done. His finishing times in the Jeff Ruby and when a troubled fifth in the Blue Grass fit under the Final Fractions Theory.
Why he won't
He's still not as good or fast as some of the others. And he won't even run if there isn't a scratch by 9 a.m. Friday.
Turfway's Jeff Ruby, best known as the Spiral Stakes, has produced two Kentucky Derby winners in Lil E Tee in 1992 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. The last Derby winner who ran for a claiming price earlier in his career was Charismatic in 1999. Blended Citizen ran in a $100,000 maiden-claiming race. He was an $85,000 2-year-old purchase. This would be Kyle Frey's first Derby.