While we are heading into the end of Meteorological Spring over the next 10 days, summer weather has been here since just after Derby and is in no hurry to leave.
We do at least have a somewhat stronger front pushing in to drive moisture levels down juuuuuuust enough to remove the rain chance for a few days.
Of course that also means we have thunderstorms to get threat before we can enjoy that benefit.
The first round should develop in the max heating of the day this afternoon. This is not a fast moving system, so it appears the zone from Evansville to Louisville (points north and south) will be the initialization zone for thunderstorms. They will then work their over over I-65 before fading out. During their peak, there is enough heat and wind energy to at least put a few of them to borderline severe thunderstorm warning status. Most will not make it to that level. Having said that, lots of lightning and very heavy rain can be expected...warning or not.
As I mentioned, the front is slow. So we will still deal with this on Tuesday. The front will also tilt a bit more to the side. This puts the thunderstorm zone roughly along and south of the Ohio River. They look to develop a few hours faster over today's as well. The severe threat tomorrow is lower than today with the wind energy element moving away into Ohio. So that just leaves us with the heat energy which is borderline for severe potential.
The earlier timing of development means those to the north will get a chance to see the skies clear up as drier air filters in.
Wednesday and Thursday I am labeling the pick weather days of the week. It will still be very warm but slightly lower humidity and no rain chance.
The weekend setup still involves a cold front easing in as well as the tropics easing up. The two could still work together to keep us on the tropical side of things with heavy rain/downpours at times. But the exact details cannot be worked out just yet. So stay close for updates!
Today's video will cover all of this PLUS some of the first pieces of Winter 2018-2019 data rolling in...