Main focus today will be the tropical nature of our pattern over the next 7-10 days. And that may include more than one tropical system on the map.
The first one is 90-L that is now located near the Yucatan. It will drift north into the Gulf of Mexico and likely to gain Tropical Depression status by Saturday. There is time for it to become a Tropical Storm before moving over land Sunday or Monday near I-65 along the coast.
The moisture from this potential storm (Alberto if named) will already start moving northward over the next 36 hours. It will be that higher moisture content in the air this weekend that will lead to a very humid setup with a heat index to at least 90° when the sun is out, and to torrential downpours when the thunderstorms pop.
Will you experience a thunderstorm this weekend? That risk is there, but the exact amount of coverage and location of the thunderstorms cannot be determined just yet. There are trends that Kentucky will run a higher percentage of coverage compared to Indiana as a cold front moving in form the north will help limit some of that deeper moisture surging northward.
Either way, just be alert for humid afternoon, dangerous lightning with the thunderstorms and flash flooding that could develop if any one thunderstorm lingers too long. Which is possible since the wind fields aloft this weekend will be weak. Not much to move them around.
The question for next week will be how far north does this tropical system travel before a cold front tries to move in a sweep it east. The moves are varying on that. Some move a front in by say next Tuesday. Some take until about June 2nd.
I would lean on the slower idea for now given this summery pattern.
In addition, there could be another tropical wave in the Gulf that could get involved before a cold front can sweep through. Something I will be watching carefully.
Attached is today's video update to visually explain all of this ramble :)