Alert Day Update 5.29.18

What is left of Alberto continues its trek up I-65 this midday.

Its moisture extends as far east as the Carolinas and north as Indiana.  So yes, the clouds and downpours outside today are part of Alberto.

The moisture levels continue to increase each hour as it is pushing in that humid air right into WAVE Country.  We are starting to see some sun breaks which is only leading to more downpours to quickly react and develop.

As the core (spin) of Alberto moves north, the wind fields to our south will become more favorable for the thunderstorm cells to rotate.  This is very common with locations on the eastern side of a tropical cyclone.  This means an isolated tornado threat will exist mainly along/south of the Parkways.  It is rare for any tornado with a tropical system to last long or become strong.  We are talking weak stuff here. Having said that, even just one quick touchdown can do damage so we will keep the alert going for that potential.  Just remember we are NOT talking about a widespread issue with this.

Perhaps more impacting would be the flash flood threat.  While the rain bands will have gaps in them with coverage, each one could really put down some torrential rainfall.  So be mindful of that.

I still see a lull in the radar activity tonight with the wind slowly increasing.  It will be quite muggy and warm.

The key question for early Wednesday will be just how close does the core track into WAVE Country?  Some data brings the SE edge of it to Louisville then bolts north.  Some keep it mainly from Jasper to Bedford, IN.  The difference?  Breezy and spotty downpours or wind gusts near 40 mph with a steady, heavy rain.  So this "bowling ball" feature will need to be watched in the morning for its path.  This is why the alert remains for Wednesday.

I should note there is another piece of strong winds aloft that will zip by Thursday PM.  If we can destabilize (as there is a risk for some daytime rain), the risk is there for damaging winds or even an isolated tornado Thursday evening.  This period could get updated to an Alert Day as a result.  Stay close to the forecast for that setup.

Attached is the video update for today!