The weather pattern we are entering is certainly one that can change for you quickly, so make sure to keep the WAVE 3 Weather App handy with the ALERTS ON and LOCATION SERVICES turned ON as well. That way any downpours (even non-severe) will trigger your device using your location in relation.
Will anything severe take place? It is possible. There is so much heat and humidity building over the next few days that even a small t-storm can feed on that before it collapses and produces some hail and burst of "cool" winds that may push 'warning' status.
What I am tracking is the potential for anything more organized than that...that could promote watches and multiple warnings to get issued.
To get to that point, you need some decent wind aloft. There is not much to talk about over the next 48 hours at all. So the theme will be the heat (not far from a record high in Louisville today) and isolated (yet strong) thunderstorms during this period.
Once we move into Sunday, there will be a bit more wind energy to work with so I did raise the rain chances a bit to account for this. Exact timing and path of some organized thunderstorms remains unclear, but they should track NW to SE when they develop. Stay tuned for updates.
Monday/early Tuesday will feature a cold front that will have a bit more potency to it. SPC does not have us in the zone for severe for this period, but I have a feeling that will change.
The aforementioned front will then become more flat or east/west in nature across the region. Just how far south it settles before that happens is still varying on the models, but I like the idea of it being close enough to keep spotty thunderstorm chances in the forecast for most of next week.
Another system may try to roll in near Father's Day that could kick up the stronger thunderstorm risk again, but that is too far out to get detailed on at this point.