Hopefully those that have needed some rainfall are catching up! I know there are still many locations in need, especially over Kentucky.
The good news is the pattern remains active and more showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast on a near daily basis. We just need to watch for those areas that experience either a slow-moving thunderstorm and/or multiple rounds for any flash flooding.
In addition, we are picking up some decent heating each day to at least add enough fuel for some small hail and isolated damaging winds. It is always hard to say if that threat will be realized or not until we evaluate how much fuel will indeed be in place vs the models.
This afternoon/evening is one of those periods. Based on the latest trends, the zone that is along the line of rain/no rain this morning (just north of I-64), looks to be where the afternoon t-storms will develop. Some locations south of that boundary could push 90 degrees. So yes, there looks to be some fuel for at least a low-end severe t-storm warning risk. We will monitor that as the afternoon unfolds.
Overnight into Tuesday should feature clusters of thunderstorms along that same zone, if not more to the south.
There will be a small window Wednesday for us to have very little in the way of a trigger in the region early on but likely ramp back up as the next front moves in later in the period through Thursday.
Interesting weekend setup in that a high pressure over the NE will try to push a cold "backwards" into WAVE Country Saturday. There is still some debate on how far west this will push but there is at least a decent signal for a drier setup this weekend yet ...hot. We will keep fine-tuning that.
Make it a Goode Morning!!