Make it a Goode Morning! 7.4.18

WAVE 3 Weather Blog

Happy 4th!!

And yes, it will be a hot one.  But something tells me you already knew that ;)

It will rival the hottest in terms on the heat index last year in late July (reached 107° on a 98° day).  So when we say that "hottest since 2012" we are referring to the heat index value.  Which is really what means the most to our bodies when we are outside.  Current thinking is climbing to about 108-111° later today in the city.  About 102-106° in the suburbs.  
The t-storm risk has been greatly reduced today, but not eliminated.  Very isolated and mainly north.

The moisture content will actually increase tomorrow.  So if we stay dry/sunny long enough, there is a chance we will match the heat index from today if not exceed it.  The thinking is that it will be interrupted at some point with cumulus clouds and thunderstorms developing.  Organized severe risk is very low, but isolated severe wind gusts are there due to the very high instability.  Just something we'll have to watch carefully.

It is rare to get a cold front through the region in the summer.  And that looks to be the case on Friday.  The timing is favoring the main rain chance very early in the day (if not from Thursday overnight).  Indiana will see the dry punch of air first in the afternoon with Kentucky feeling the love by Friday evening.

Humidity levels will be knocked down several notches.  You will still feel it and it will be very warm/hot...but you can stand outside longer before you become drenched in sweat.  Usually in these setups the main thing you notice is the overnight lows have a chance go drop more.  In this case, into the 60s!

Model battle begins on whether or not we enter another stormy period near the 12th or does the heat build back in for another stretch?  I am leaning toward some increase in t-storms near the 11th or 12th, but the pattern supports another heat wave taking over.

And that looks to be the trend this summer.  The core of the heat west that will push in every now and then with some interruptions of weak cold fronts/thunderstorms.  Which I think is a decent balance really.

Stay safe this holiday!
Make it a Goode Morning!