Make it a Goode Morning! 7.30.18

WAVE 3 Weather Blog

We say 'Good-bye' to July and 'Hello' to August this week!  
Is it just me or is this year on super-speed?  I know we say that every year...but this one feels different.

Anyway, to the weather we go!

Main challenges ahead will be the next 30 hours.  There will be 2 main issues to monitor:
1- Afternoon clusters of strong to severe t-storms
2- Overnight/early Tuesday morning heavy rainfall bands with flash flooding risk

#1
Morning showers will continue to dry up through lunch.  The question will then become how much heating can we get from any sun breaks into the afternoon?  That one will be a challenge as high level clouds are blowing in from Missouri just as we are seeing signs of the current cloud deck breaking up.  So an overcast sky for at least a few hours is looking likely. 
If we are able to heat up enough, the fuel will be there with some modest wind shear to provide for a low-end severe thunderstorm window later.  Trends support a window of about 4pm-7pm.  So a narrow window for sure.  And since we will be dealing with clusters of thunderstorms, many of you will get skipped on this.  
For the ones that do get impacted, heavy rain...gusty winds will be the main hazards.  The hail and tornado threat is lower.
For whatever does form, a mid/late evening break in the radar is showing up.

#2
A low pressure to our south will help enhance rainfall late night/early Tuesday.  The exact location of this "enhancement" is still a bit unclear, but the risk is there for some of our counties to pick up a steady band of heavy rain while others don't get a drop north or south of that enhancement.   There will be a flash flooding risk with this type of setup, but with the locations still a challenge to work out---it will be important to keep the WAVE 3 Weather App nearby overnight with the volume turned on.  We will have more data this evening that will help answer the above issue.

Looking ahead:
Fairly quiet as we will have 2 high pressures around.  One east, one west.  With us in the middle, there will be a risk for an isolated thunderstorm.  The upside to that is there we will only heat up to around normal levels which is into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  

I will examine the longer term a bit more on the video today PLUS a more hour-by-hour look to short-range issues on the table.

Make it a Goode Morning!