While we heat up over the next few days, it will be hard to shake off the spotty thunderstorms. Keep this in mine for your outdoor plans.
Here is the breakdown of the setup:
Rest of today: Best moisture and fuel is going to be across southern IN and mainly west of I-65. The winds aloft are very weak, so spotty thunderstorms that will develop/fade is the game plan. There is enough fuel for one or two to push severe wind limits, but too isolated to really raise the red flag. For the rest of us that miss these downpours, the heat will build will highs nearing 90 degrees later.
Saturday: The winds remain weak aloft, but still at least *some* fuel around to work with. Thunderstorm chances mainly from the heat of the day...so roughly 2pm-7pm is the window for them to pop. Most will get missed once again.
Sunday: Still dealing with weak winds aloft, but the amount of fuel starts to increase. This should increase the coverage just a big more over Saturday with still the heating of the afternoon being the main trigger for them. Locally heavy/strong.
Monday: Basically a repeat of Sunday :)
Tuesday/Wednesday: This is where the challenge is in the 7day outlook. The fuel will be in place (building up over the weekend into Monday). A cold front will then help supply stronger winds aloft. There is still some questions about how strong those winds will be and how fast will this front move through? Some of the recent data wants to slow it down and stall into near KY/TN.
Either way, it looks to be active at times with rounds of thunderstorms. The severe potential is already showing up but some of the key pieces (like how much sun will we pick up and will we have early day rain) still need to get answered. So in the meantime, an Alert Day has been flagged for Tuesday as a "heads up" and hopefully we can dial that back down if the answers we get show a less threatening setup. Just something to keep checking back on as you coast through the weekend.
I will be here Sunday morning, so I will see you then!
Make it a Goode Weekend!
Here is a special note from Chief Meteorologist Kevin Harned along with another video you will see next to the blog.
Meet Andria Myers from Shelbyville, KY who has been interning with us over the summer. She will soon head back west to resume her studies at The University of Oklahoma where she’s pursuing a degree in meteorology. One of her projects over the past few weeks has been to create a video series that will help each visitor to our blog understand the weather a little better. Check back over the next several days for her installment of Weather 101.
Weather 101 Schedule
8/3/18 - Video 3 – Basics of thunderstorms, common cloud types, life cycle of thunderstorm, raindrop charge separation, hail, tornado ingredients & shear.
8/6/18 - Video 4 – Basics of forecasting, weather models & soundings.
8/7/18 - Video 5 – Basics of winter storms, precipitation types & lake effect snow.
8/8/18 - Video 6 – Expand severe weather concepts, downbursts, gust fronts, scud clouds, etc. & air masses.
8/9/18 Video 7 – Basics of tropical weather, sea breeze, storm types, what makes a hurricane, formation & life cycle.
Many thanks to Andria’s contribution to our team. We look forward to following her career in the years to come.