2018 Autumn Outlook

2018 Autumn Outlook

It is always good to think about cooler times when we are hot and humid like as of late.  At least, that is my thinking :)

As most of you know, long range forecasting is a huge challenge anywhere...but especially in the Ohio Valley.

Having said that, we do have enough data these days to at least  identify weather patterns that show signs of either repeating, or locking in for weeks at a time.  I will mainly discuss those ideas today.  I will try to at least have some fun with this as well.  :)

NOTABLE DATES
September 22nd:  Autumnal Equinox (when fall begins)  9:54 PM
October 20th:  Our normal date for a first frost
October 31st:  Halloween   (a Wednesday this year) , and WAVE 3 Weather Winter Forecast
November 1st:  Our normal date for a first freeze
November 4th   Set clocks back 1 hour
November 6th:  Mid-Term Elections
November 15th:  Our normal date for first snow flurries
November 22th:  Thanksgiving
December 7th:   Our normal date for measurable snow 

Now to the weather side of things...

SUMMER PATTERN
To look ahead, we first must look at the NOW and the PAST.  And the trends this summer certainly stood out.  
High pressure has remained locked in to the west with only teases to the east in our direction.  Even the Bermuda High to our east in the Atlantic has really struggled to move in and take over.  Which normally happens this time of the year.  
With no full-on protection of the high pressures, cold fronts have been able to push through often.  This has kept us humid and rainy at times.  The severe threat has been mainly north.

FACTORS AHEAD

DROUGHT
The drought will be a big one.  And it has certainly expanded this summer.  You get a nature high pressure over them so that keeps the weather pattern more active on its eastern side.  Something to keep in mind.

EL NINO
We are at "neutral" status right now, but the data suggests a weak El Nino for this fall and perhaps a bit stronger for the winter.  Normally, this would keep us mild and rainy into a winter season.  This still looks "possible" but I am suspect of how quickly this is going to develop.  So I didn't factor this one in as much as I normally would.

FORECAST

SEPTEMBER TEMPS
I do see more heat waves coming our way.  One perhaps late August and again late September.  So I don't see us done with heat into September.  There will more cold fronts passing through. Perhaps even some severe weather potential again.

OCTOBER TEMPS
This is where I see the high to our west becoming more amplified.  This the potential to send in deep troughs into the eastern U-S as a result.  The thinking on this is a shift in the Pacific Jet.  Normally October is one of our driest months, but this one could get a shake-up this year.

NOVEMBER TEMPS
More shifting, but overall...normal.  Warm spells can, and often do, happen in November.  Even severe weather.  The colder attacks look more late month which would be timely for Thanksgiving?

OVERALL RAINFALL
The pattern looks like it will repeat the summer setup with a few fluctuations.  The plan is to keep us overall near/above normal in rainfall as a result for the season.  There will be dry periods of course, but the rain events could be significant when they take place compared to normal.

I will stop the outlook there for now.  I will end that with the amplified pattern holding, there will be a greater than normal risk for some cutoff lows later in the fall.  This could allow for some rain to flurries or rain to mix events in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and the Appalachians.  Something to keep in mind down the road  :)

Winter 2018-2019 Outlook comes out HALLOWEEN NIGHT!