Cruising right along into mid August...and our weather pattern remains familiar.
More cold fronts are heading in our direction over the next 7-14 days...keeping the rain chance at play.
The driest, and warmest, period looks to actually be today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps touching 90.
The change in the pattern kicks in Wednesday morning as a weak warm front passes through. The timing of this front will put it very closer to the morning rush hour...which is also when JCPS and others return to school. As of now, the flow looks weak enough that whatever forms would be spotty or in clusters with most of it on the lighter side. Having said that, any amount of rain during rush hour leads to problems around here so we will watch this carefully.
The warm/humid air will take over by midday Wednesday with a few afternoon thunderstorms possible, but coverage looks limited right now.
That will change later Wednesday night into Thursday as a tremendous amount of moisture feeds into our area. This is a heavy rain setup that could repeat itself over several locations. This could be an Alert Day if the heavy rain potential stays in the data and/or it aims for the AM commute Thursday. Plenty of time to fine-tune.
The severe threat looks despite the stronger winds aloft. The cloudy skies should help keep the fuel in check. Let's hope we remain on the cloudy side in future updates.
The system will then sag more into southern KY and TN over the weekend but it won't leave us alone for long. The moisture train will return north the following week with more showers and thunderstorms.
The video update today will visually showing all of the above to help explain this better.