Alert Day Update 8.15.18

WAVE 3 Weather Blog

Main focus today will be on the rounds of rain/thunderstorms moving through over the next 36 hours especially.  
As a result, we will enter our Alert Day status this evening/overnight and Thursday.

Why?  Multiple weather elements expected that can certainly impact your plans and travel in a more widespread fashion.

I will start with the good news.
-There isn't much wind aloft for a big time severe thunderstorm event.
-The ground has been drying out, so we can handle some heavy rain clusters.

The bad news:
-There is low level wind that will keep this moisture content high.
  If you pick up multiple rounds of heavy rain, you can quickly go to a flash flooding status.
-While the severe threat is low, but you can get brief damaging winds/brief tornado in these setups. Just not as likely.

The complicating factors:
Timing of each cluster/wave of rain is constantly changing on the data trends.
The rain looks to be in clusters ...leading to high variance on rain totals.   Even within the same county.

So that is the main overview of what is ahead.  So let's break it down:

Now-5pm
Spotty downpours. Mainly west of I-65.  We will have to see how much thinning of the clouds we get to gain some fuel for thunderstorms later.  Temps should warm into the mid 80s.
5pm-9pm
Clusters of thunderstorms move in from the west.  They do not look to be widespread.  Isolated severe threat is there with most of them sub-severe with very heavy rain.  With them being in clusters, some locations will miss them entirely.   
9pm-6am Thursday
The clusters of thunderstorms/heavy rain start to form/fall apart and reform during this period.  Some will likely "train" over the same locations.  Most likely zone of impact looks to be areas north/west of Etown which would cover all out southern Indiana and our counties that border the Ohio River.  Rain totals of 1-3" look to be on the table.  Anything higher than that would be very localized and problematic.  But too early to make that call on time/location of such.
6am-2pm Thursday
More waves of rain/thunderstorms.  They will be tracking more to the east and fading by the end of this period.
2pm-8pm Thursday
T-storms redevelop.  Especially over Kentucky.  Some could be locally strong with heavy rain remaining the concern.

More rain is expected after this time period.  The video will touch base on that.

So as you can see, this will be a busy period for us in WAVE Country.  I am not a fan at all of events like this are aren't clear-cut with the data.  Sluggish systems with deep moisture never seem to go as planned.  I fully expect adjustments to what I typed out above, but at least you have a general idea of that how things look as of this morning.  It will be VERY important that you keep checking the WAVE 3 Weather App and catch our newscasts for the changes that will take place.

Stay tuned!