Weather Blog

  Make it a Goode Morning! 8.21.18

A fairly significant flip flop pattern is going to take place over the next 7 days.  So hopefully everyone will be happy in the end :) Short term: Showers will develop this afternoon in a very "speckled" fashion.  Quick-hitting downpours with some lightning and pea size hail.  They will fade once the sun lowers in the sky later. One more lobe of energy will spin down tomorrow afternoon.  This could spark a shower but moisture will become limited by this...

  Alert Day Update 8.20.18

NEXT 18 HOURS Let me start off by saying the alert is the risk for isolated flash flooding and perhaps strong to severe wind gusts west of I-65 later tonight.  It is a highly conditional threat as well with timing on our side. This is all about the ball of energy that is rolling in from the next over the next 24 hours.  It is impressive to see it on the maps for August.  So when you combine that energy with a hot, humid afternoon...you run into problems.  There is...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.17.18

Finally Friday! And yes, still dealing with spotty downpours/thunderstorms.   The ground is getting water-logged, so now we need to really watch future downpours for flash flooding concerns.  The good news is they looks scattered enough that this doesn't look to be a widespread or prolonged issue.   I will give a breakdown below plus the video will also show a piece of new winter 2018-2019 data the rolled in today. Rest of today: Some sunshine...very warm ...

Alert Day Update 8.15.18

Main focus today will be on the rounds of rain/thunderstorms moving through over the next 36 hours especially.   As a result, we will enter our Alert Day status this evening/overnight and Thursday.   Why?  Multiple weather elements expected that can certainly impact your plans and travel in a more widespread fashion. I will start with the good news. There isn't much wind aloft for a big time severe thunderstorm event. The ground has been drying out, so we ca...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.14.18

Get ready for a longer video today.  I will cover all the of the heavy rain/severe t-storm threats as well as some of the new data to get us into the end of September. For this written post, I will at least type out what to expect with our first system that will challenge us this week. WARM FRONT Arrives tomorrow morning...roughly in the 4-8am window...west to east.  This is not a strong warm front.  Which is normal--as strong warm fronts are rare in the summer.&...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.13.18

Cruising right along into mid August...and our weather pattern remains familiar. More cold fronts are heading in our direction over the next 7-14 days...keeping the rain chance at play. The driest, and warmest, period looks to actually be today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps touching 90. The change in the pattern kicks in Wednesday morning as a weak warm front passes through.  The timing of this front will put it very closer to the morning rush hour...whi...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.10.18

Happy Friday!! I decided to focus mainly on the weekend and the next system for next week with this post.  We have many events taking place during that window so I know getting the rain chances worked out is key. I will do it by time periods again. Rest of today: Mainly focus for showers/thunderstorms looks to be across our southern counties today.  And most of that will happen over the next few hours.There will be a limit on how far north moisture can travel so much of W...

2018 Autumn Outlook

It is always good to think about cooler times when we are hot and humid like as of late.  At least, that is my thinking :) As most of you know, long range forecasting is a huge challenge anywhere...but especially in the Ohio Valley.   Having said that, we do have enough data these days to at least  identify weather patterns that show signs of either repeating, or locking in for weeks at a time.  I will mainly discuss those ideas today.  I will try to at...

Make it a Goode Morning 8.8.18

The air outside remains quite humid...which keeps the rain chance in tact for awhile.   As you may have noticed, it won't rain the entire time.  But when it does...watch for very heavy rain. There is still some wiggle room for a few strong wind gusts and small hail, but the severe threat remains on the low side due to the lack of decent wind above us.  Having said that, you can still get some wind damage from these little guys...like we saw in the area yesterday. ...

Alert Day Update 8.7.18

The best way to explain this is by time periods... Now- 4pm   Main rain band over southern IN will fade more and more.  Spotty downpours elsewhere.  Main focus will be the heating as we push up to 90 or even a bit higher in spots.  The high levels of moisture will push the heat index into the mid to even upper 90s in some spots. 4pm-12am Fairly broad time period here but this when the spotty clusters of thunderstorms will pop on the radar.  Several look...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.6.18

Another hot one for us today as we push the heat index level close to 100 degrees at times this afternoon. The main relief from that will be the scattered thunderstorms that will develop. The greatest potential for those looks to be along/east of I-65.  They look to contain some very heavy rainfall and downburst wind potential that could lead to an isolated severe thunderstorm warning. Tuesday is when we start to experience the cold front to our north.  It is a slow mover....

  Make it a Goode Morning! 8.5.18

Happy Sunday! It will be another hot one today as we climb to back to/above that 90 degree mark.  More importantly, the heat index will push back into that 95-100 degree range again.  Take it easy out there! A few t-storms will be possible with the greater coverage expected across KY vs IN.   Expect the coverage to pick up a couple notches Monday.  Especially along/east of I-65. The Alert Day is still out for Tuesday.  There are still some questions o...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.3.18

While we heat up over the next few days, it will be hard to shake off the spotty thunderstorms.  Keep this in mine for your outdoor plans. Here is the breakdown of the setup: Rest of today: Best moisture and fuel is going to be across southern IN and mainly west of I-65.  The winds aloft are very weak, so spotty thunderstorms that will develop/fade is the game plan.  There is enough fuel for one or two to push severe wind limits, but too isolated to really raise the re...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.2.18

Certainly was a foggy/hazy start to the day.  We are at least on the upward trend on improving our weather setup the next few days. It will remain humid at times and the thunderstorm risk never will fade away completely.  But it will become more of what we'd expect in the summer...typical afternoon pop-up downpours and thunderstorms.   Once we move into the weekend, the added fuel of pushing temperatures to around 90° will allow any of those "pop-ups"...

Make it a Goode Morning! 8.1.18

This pattern is going to be slow to shake it appears. We remain in a zone where cold fronts are loving to hang out.  This is keeping us more cloudy than sunny, and off and on downpours/thunderstorms.  There are 2 fronts that at least help us focus the higher rain chances along.  One to our east near I-75 and one way west into IL.   Overall, the greater coverage of rain today will be east closer to the Eastern Kentucky front.  But even for the rest of us,...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.30.18

We say 'Good-bye' to July and 'Hello' to August this week!   Is it just me or is this year on super-speed?  I know we say that every year...but this one feels different. Anyway, to the weather we go! Main challenges ahead will be the next 30 hours.  There will be 2 main issues to monitor: 1- Afternoon clusters of strong to severe t-storms 2- Overnight/early Tuesday morning heavy rainfall bands with flash flooding risk #1 Morning showers will continue to dry up t...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.27.18

Some really nice weather taking hold of WAVE Country as I type this! Expect a partly sunny sky today.  I still see a small chance for some sprinkles to form north later today, but the amount of dry air is impressive so this will be a non-issue. Lows tonight into the 50s for many locations with 60s in the city.  Yes please! THE WEEKEND: Really nice weather for Saturday.  A top 10 type of day.  The sky may not be perfectly blue all day but even a partly cloudy sky...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.26.18

Only a few minor issues to track as we at least start the weekend.  It will be the end of the weekend into early next week that will involve more active weather that will likely get your attention. NOW-SATURDAY A cold front is on its way to WAVE Country as we move into this evening overnight.  We will warm nicely through the 80s with the amount of clouds today determining if 90 is reachable again or not.  The first pop-up showers/thunder look to take place across south...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.25.18

Flirting with 90 degrees the next couple of days. And who doesn't like to flirt? So what about the rain chances?  They remain small today and spotty. Just like the past couple of days.   The difference in that thinking will come into play tomorrow with a cold front. We will pick up a SW wind overnight (first time from that direction since last Friday) that will keep us warm/slightly muggy.  It will also allow for a potential 90 degree day.  The increasing ...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.24.18

Fairly quiet weather pattern overall with a few fronts to track in the days ahead. Front # 1 Arrives tomorrow.  Likely in a dry fashion with not much to work with when it arrives.  I kept rain chances low regardless. Front # 2 Arrives Thursday evening.  This one will also struggle with moisture levels as it will only have a SW wind only briefly before it arrives.  There is some modest wind energy with this system...especially for IN/OH.  However, the nocturn...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.23.18

Normally we would be talking about heat waves or drought in late July.  At least, that seems to happen more often than not this time of the year. Instead, we are still enjoying a rainfall surplus and currently a cooler than normal pattern. How do things trend down the road? Well...more of the same it appears. There will be a series of fronts that will either attempt or actually push all the way through over the next 7-10 days.  This will keep any heat wave at bay aind rai...

Weather Blog: Abnormal July severe weather event today

This isn't typical. Strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are moving into Western Kentucky later today, spurring what could be a sizable severe weather event from our area all the way down to parts of West Tennessee. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a vast majority of WAVE Country to a somewhat rare Moderate Risk of severe weather. Storm timing has been quite difficult to pin down over the past 24 hours and that's still the case this morning. It...

Weather Blog: NWS Conference Call 7-19-18

NWS Louisville is held a conference call today to discuss Friday's severe weather setup with emergency management, government officials, and the media. Timestamped notes from the call are below. 3:00pm - The call is starting shortly. Ted Funk will be leading the call. 3:03pm - This is an anomalous type of system for this time of year due to the strong winds aloft. Typically winds are calmer aloft in the summer. 3:04pm - Couple rounds of storms tomorrow. The first will be in the mor...

Weather Blog: Friday's severe weather potential ramping up

All eyes are on Friday's severe weather threat as the Storm Prediction Center has put WAVE Country in an Enhanced Risk of severe weather, which is a 3 out of 5 on their scale. Damaging winds are the main threat with these storms, but hail and isolated tornadoes are definitely on the list too. In fact, the isolated tornado potential looks to be highest early on in the afternoon/evening round of severe weather when individualized supercell storms are possible before they merge into one ...

Weather Blog: Zeroing in on Friday's severe weather potential

What a perfect July morning! Lows in the 60s will be with us again on Thursday morning as low humidity continues. Daytime highs today will be in the upper 80s, so it'll definitely still be very warm out there regardless of the humidity. We inch a little closer to 90 degrees tomorrow. Friday's storm potential is at top of mind today as we start to key in on the specifics behind it. It still appears that the greatest threat on Friday will be just southwest of most of our area, a little...

Weather Blog: Watching severe weather potential for Friday

Hello cold front! Drier air will be slowly pushing its way through WAVE Country through the afternoon, leading to a less humid feel for all by this evening. As this happens there will be a few isolated storms in Southern Kentucky, but a vast majority of folks will stay dry. Highs today will still be warm, just shy of 90° here in the city. Expect mid 80s tomorrow as high pressure and cooler air get situated over the Great Lakes. Wednesday will easily be the pick of the week! Frida...

Weather Blog: Storms bring lower humidity this week

We've already seen quite a few lighter showers develop in WAVE Country this morning from a remnant MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) that moved in from Missouri and Illinois. This is essentially the mostly-dead broad circulation from storms that happened well out to our west last night. This feature will likely spark additional storms in places east of I-65 this morning and into early this afternoon. Once this feature exits after lunchtime we'll see a break in the storms and rain, ev...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.11.18

Hey Y'all!   Ready to knock this humidity down a few notches?  Me too! It is happening as I type this...from north to south in WAVE Country. Louisville will have a few more hours to feel a difference and even then....we will be battling the heating of the day. For those of you south of Louisville, the rain chance is still in tact until the front passes your neighborhood.  Considering the lack of rain chances ahead, I hope you get one of them!  Unfortunately,...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.10.18

A brief and minor drop in humidity coming before a fairly potent heat wave takes over. So now that I have cheered you up :) Here is how this looks to evolve... This afternoon: 2 main areas for spotty thunderstorms to develop.  One generally across KY and along the Ohio River.  The other closer to the cold front just north of WAVE Country.  The first one will struggle with coverage, but any one thunderstorm has the chance to bust through this heat and produce very hea...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.9.18

Welcome to a new week! It will be another hot one for us, but nothing excessive and it does come with a least one "lower humidity" day. Here is the breakdown of the days ahead.  A more technical discussion will be on the video! LATER TODAY Heat will build despite passing clouds.  Highs a couple degrees either side of 90.  The heat index looks to average in the mid/upper 90s. The main challenge today is timing/coverage of a few thunderstorms.  The cloud...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.6.18

Yay for cold fronts in July!   There are actually 2 fronts today.  One that contains the "umph" or wind shift, and the other containing the less humid air. The wind shift one will be the main driver on t-storms today and timing/placement by this afternoon favors our KY counties picking up the greatest coverage of thunderstorms.  And some could still produce a warning or two for strong winds, but instability doesn't look as off the chain as it did yester...

  Make it a Goode Morning! 7.4.18

Happy 4th!! And yes, it will be a hot one.  But something tells me you already knew that ;) It will rival the hottest in terms on the heat index last year in late July (reached 107° on a 98° day).  So when we say that "hottest since 2012" we are referring to the heat index value.  Which is really what means the most to our bodies when we are outside.  Current thinking is climbing to about 108-111° later today in the city.  About 102-106...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.3.18

2 Alert Days are out... For the 4th and 5th of July. Humidity levels pushing us into the danger zone (cue Maverick) Wednesday and Thursday. We actually won't be far from it even today, but increase cumulus clouds and t-storms should help cut that off just in time.  It took a while for the Louisville Metro to see that "cutoff time" and the airport got to 94° with a heat index of 105°.  Which I can't rule out today, but I am already seeing signs of develop...

Make it a Goode Morning! 7.2.18

"If it's not the heat, it's the thunderstorms!" That pretty much sums up our weather pattern the next couple of days. At least there some downpours around that can cool ya down ...at least briefly.  Just keep in mind that a few of these t-storms will become briefly strong/heavy.  They will not move fast as well, so there is a risk for some quick flash flooding that would subside fairly quick since these thunderstorms do have a life span on them today.  If yo...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.29.18

Shew...over it yet?  Get ready for a long period of 90 degree heat.  The only thing really to break the streak would be some afternoon clouds or a thunderstorm to knock is down for an hour or two. The issue we will need to really what is how high the dewpoints get in the coming days.  They look to average 70-75 degrees along and east of I-65 at times this weekend.  And 75-79° to the west.  The difference?  The higher that number is, the higher the he...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.28.18

Ready for this heat wave? Likely not. This one will last a good 10 to perhaps 15 days.   Thunderstorm chances look to exist daily, but quite spotty in nature.  There are a couple hints of waves that may enhance those chances including one Sunday night into Monday.  But the heat will remain the main head. The core of the heat will be to our west the next 36 hours.  This will keep our heat index below advisory levels today (which is 105°) but will push it...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.27.18

It has been a wild couple of days for us.  As of this post, NWS Louisville has at least indicated an EF-1 tornado with winds of 88 mph touched down in NE Jefferson County.  They may still adjust that scale and are still working on the exact path as it may extend into Oldham County.  Our social media pages will update you with the latest results. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding again possible this afternoon, but the coverage of such will be reduced compared to T...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.25.18

The radar will remain busy at times through at least late Wednesday/early Thursday. The WAVE 3 Weather App will handle the short-term weather setup that is currently taking place.  Localized flash flooding and gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms today. I will skip ahead to Tuesday's setup. This is will involve an approaching area of decent mid-level winds by the afternoon/night.  We could start the day off with a fading area of t-storms (from overnight tonight) tha...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.22.18

Welcome to the first FULL day of SUMMER! It will be an active one for thunderstorms.  I will be quite general with this post as the situation is changing by the hour.  Today's video covers the details if you watch this in the very near term. Overall, clusters of thunderstorms will rotate in from the west around an area of low pressure near St. Louis.  There will be enough fuel around for very heavy rain, intense lightning. strong wind gusts and even a weak tornado.&nb...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.21.18

Welcome to Summer 2018! Feels different, right? Riiiiigggght. The irony is today will be one of the coolest we have had in a couple weeks.  Of course, that it cloud and rain induced.  The downpours so far have been very spotty.  Just remember how much moisture is in the air today...so they can really put down the totals in a short amount of time.   It appears this first batch will move east with some sun breaks this afternoon. Just how much sun/heating we ge...

Make it a Goode Morning! 6.20.18

Goode Morning! This looks to be our last round pushing 90 degrees with a heat index into the low/mid 90s.  We will have much more of a cumulus cloud field later today compared to yesterday and some triggers around for scattered thunderstorms.  The better moisture lines up north of the Parkways which would include southern IN and much of northern KY.  I am still seeing signs that once they develop and drift east, new development directly to their west would take shape. ...