A pattern more reminiscent of January at times...
Monday Night/ Tuesday: Rain to snow.
11/21: Travel Day System
Overall, there is no major snow/winter event that is about to take place in the outlook. But could some see some light snow accumulation? Yes.
We will have the light rain early in the day that will give way to drizzle for the rest of the daytime period. Colder air will work in by evening. The air does cool enough (top down) for frozen precipitation to get involved before the dry air shuts things down. The question here is whether or not there will be enough moisture for snowflakes to form or will it be just drizzle near 32°? Even sleet is possible. Just keep in mind, even drizzle at 32 will not be an issue given the warm ground. There is a slight convective look to this setup so there is a chance to cool things down enough for snow showers to develop with that help. If that happens, yes...you could see a few corners of roofs or car tops with a bit of snow. The main window for this potential looks to be 6pm-Midnight. Again, nothing major here. The cold blast moving in will be the bigger issue with widespread 20s by Saturday morning.
The track is still not locked in nor is the timing of “phasing” of this system. Having said that, the EURO has been very steady on its approach of a rain to brief snow setup locally with any accumulations NW of WAVE Country.
The GFS is more to the east and is mostly snow for us but very minor if anything.
I will say the nocturnal timing of this system does support a rain to snow setup but it is also fairly fast in speed. This means the system will have limits on the amount of moisture it can provide. The data does support some light grassy amounts with the “best track” ideas for you snow lovers. We are leaning toward rain being the main type for now with the changeover at night with light amounts possible. That is all we can really say at this point. It will get fully sampled Friday so hopefully that will fill in some gaps.
As we move toward Thanksgiving Week, signals continue to point to a decent storm system tracking across the country from that Tuesday-Thanksgiving. This one could have it all, thunderstorms south, snow north. Where we fit into that mix no one can answer yet. But it is at least worth a mention that we could face some travel issues that week at some point. We shall see! Gobble Gobble!