Busy pattern ahead.... here is the latest:
Next 15 Hours: Rain to a burst of snow. Some slick spots.
Saturday night into Monday AM: Potential Winter Storm
12/13-14: Rain to snow setup. One to Watch.
Next 15 hours: Watching snow light up the radar to our west. Some of that not reaching the ground...yet. We are warming up enough here to see it start as light rain then change to a burst of snow this evening. It still appears we will be above freezing when most of the snow falls which will limit amounts to grassy areas if anything. The challenge is how much moisture will be on the roads when temperatures drop into the 20s? There doesn’t appear to be much at this time as there is a window to dry the roads out. Having said that, there is a risk for a quick burst of snow along/south of I-64 before the cold wave (late evening) that could keep the risk for slick spots on the table overnight/early Friday. Stay close to the WAVE 3 Weather App for details on that.
Saturday night-Monday: This still has a look of a significant winter storm that will cross from the Plains into the SE part of the country. There remain many questions to the amount and type of moisture on one hand, and the northern extent/track on the other. The two main questions, of course, of any winter storm.
The trends have been shifting at least the track north and south over the past 24 hours. That is normal and I fully expect more shifts. Even a shift of 40-60 miles will have significant differences in expected impacts in WAVE Country.
As far a types/amounts, we will still face some marginal cold air with the northern side of this system. There still is a good signal for a northeast lower (cold) flow below about 8,000 feet. We need to see how that will battle the warmer air aloft this system will likely bring. This means varying types on the table of snow, sleet, freezing rain and yes...just plain rain.
While the NE wind portion is important on getting colder air involve (if you want this snow), there is a catch 22 with it. It will be drier air. This means a sharp line/cutoff on the northern side of this winter storm.
The area that will get the most snow/ice will be where the 2 ideas overlap....perfectly. That is incredibly hard to predict until hours from the event. Having said that, that “zone” still is showing up somewhere in WAVE Country so we need to be on guard.
Remember, in the locations where there is NOT a careful balance of the dry/warm/cold/moist air, you will end up with a less impressive event.
We should good some really good data on this over the next 24 hours so I think tomorrow’s SnowTALK! is going to be an interesting one...
12/13-14: Obviously the details on this one are vague but the signal is a strong one for a decent storm system to pass through. I am suspect of how much warming we can get in advance of it which sets us up for a rain to snow deal. Stay tuned.