Coldest morning of the season for Louisville earlier... 21°.
Now we prepare for a break in winter and get back on track with a late autumn setup with 50s and some rain.
12/20 Brief rain to snow setup
12/24 Rain to snow
There is no doubt the signals are there for a significant blast of cold air moving into Canada that will spill over inter the lower 48. The question is...when?
The data verbatim shows the last week of December through mid-January. Modeling, however, is faster to these changes than the reality...by roughly 3-7 days. This means a close call for a White Christmas setup.
Before we get to that point, were there be a couple of cold “attacks” to track. One will graze us early next week that will be more of a “cool attack”.
The next one around the 20th looks more potent. There will be a shot of rain to snow with that.
As I mentioned above, Christmas Week is when the pattern gets more complex as we will likely see a couple of significant/slow-moving winter storms crossing the country. How we fit into those is unclear at this early stage. Typically in a pattern change like this the first one would be rain to snow.
It will be fun to see how this trends! The video has the maps!