Still some active weather to track as we move toward Christmas... but the trends still favor liquid over frozen. For now.
Friday PM Rain to wet snow/flurries
Sunday Night: Light rain (or mix north)
Christmas Day: Light rain or snow potential
12/29-30th Overunning/freezing rain risk
As you can see, there is nothing pressing on the charts. Just several “potentials” that are complicated by track/thermals. Which is normal around here.
Friday... another cat and mouse game where the moisture will be exiting stage right as colder air is moving in. I still feel the wind chills will be more of an issue as the strong NW winds will really make for a cold afternoon. The snow part looks more “festive”. As I mentioned yesterday, this is not a good setup to get snow on the ground with it being warm & wet from rainfall. But elevation can help for some grassy amounts. This means those near the Lake Cumberland and closer to I-75 in KY stand a better chance at something like that. The roads look wet into the evening. My only caution is if the wind slacks off quicker than expected, the roads may still have puddles when we drop below freezing overnight. So watch for that.
Sunday PM... One of the two waves that have the potential to zip by. This one is all over the place depending on which model you look at. The track will be important to get the rain/snow line more to the south but so will the timing. Nocturnal timing could aid in some light snow...especially north. This is one of those waves that can have “surprises" with them as the lack of data on it and its speed will mean some quick forecast adjustments within 24 hours of it arriving. So stay close to the forecast updates.
Christmas Day... the second of the two waves. This one is a bit more uncertain as its more of an issue of whether or not it does roll out into our area or stay back with the parent low (that will impact us later next week). EURO has been consistent that it will move through but varies on details.
So yes, we still have more questions than answers but know those are the 2 items of interest right now to track. As I mentioned at the start, from the data we have on-hand now, liquid form is preferred over frozen. But there is wiggle room with these for you BOTS' fans. Just don’t get too disappointed if it doesn’t line up later.
Later next week, very active with the southern branch which looks to include a warm surge with heavy rain potentially. My concern here is that we will see more of a SE ridge that will stretch out the cold fronts near our locations. This will put us close to the battle zone of the cold air north and warm air south. All temps of precip would then be on the table. And yes, this could lead us into New Year’s Eve.
Certainly no shortage if items to track. Just gotta take these one at a time.
I am working on a Winter Outlook UPDATE...look for that information soon!