Windy and turning colder...the main headline. At least for the short-term :)
Friday night-Sunday System to watch
1/16-17 Mix to rain potential
Strong winds will usher in the return to winter cold this evening. Even some snow flurries will fly across our northern sections later tonight as the core of the cold settles in. Temperatures will struggle through the 30s the next couple of days with lows in the teens and 20s! BRRRR!
We will have some modest warming by Friday before our main system arrives.
WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
The trend to has a phased system continues this morning. This will help with increasing the moisture amounts but it puts us at risk for a warm nose on Saturday.
The depth of cold air late Friday night (combined with some evaporative cooling) looks to be enough to start this show with snow and/or sleet. Some light accumulations possible. The ground has been warm as of late, but 2-3 nights of very cold air in advance of this system will cool it enough to at least mention slick spots with this first round.
Saturday is the tricky day. The path/intensity of the low will determine a) how much of a warm nose pushes north? b) where will that “line” will be placed in WAVE Country? It will take a couple more days to get those answers. At this point, there remains the risk for the wintry weather to change to rain during the day Saturday. That would mean just a sloppy mess out there.
Saturday night/early Sunday would feature a return back to snow before ending.
This is a classic setup for us that if you go by the pattern as of late and what history has shown us, a snow to rain to snow setup does make the most sense.
What could alter things would be if we can get a layer of snow early Saturday that will keep the lower layers cool. That could lead to a either staying snow or a freezing rain issue. I have witnessed that a few times around here but the warm nose idea certainly has been more common. I could go back and forth with data to support both ideas right now but that is pointless at this early stage. The details/parameters are so small that the hi-res models need to get their hands on this to help answer some of these questions.
I do think this has the potential to be a winter storm, so that is why we need to watch the trends carefully.
After this system, we will try to warm back up again but if we have snow cover, that will complicate the next system as well.
The video will cover all of this today PLUS a look at the new data trends into February.