Well for those of you that wanted some winter fun, here we go! Just remember, that comes with headaches in our neck of the woods.
Late Friday Night/Saturday Accumulating snow
Sunday Light rain or snow
Monday Morning Light Freezing rain or light snow
1/16 Mix to rain
1/20 System to watch
1/25 System to watch
The board is busy but we need to focus on the weekend system(s). And there are 3.
The best way to do this is by time period so bear with me...
Predawn hours of Saturday... Dry air will limit what can reach the ground to start, but eventually snow will make it down. Small risk for it to start as rain but it won’t take long to go to snow. Accumulations start to take place.
Saturday morning-midday... Accumulating snow across much of WAVE Country. Worst of driving conditions during this time.
Saturday afternoon... Rain/snow mix south, snow north but may struggle to accumulate consistently as temps near or rise just above freezing. Slushy/wet mess. Rain/snow line a challenge.
Saturday night/Sunday.. Off and on rain/snow potential. Too early to call on additional (if any) accumulations but it is certainly on the table.
Sunday night/Monday... Light rain/snow mix or perhaps freezing drizzle. Still a complex setup as the above setup will impact this last portion.
Amounts: Areas near/north of the rain/snow line is going to be a sweet spot on amounts. They will also be dramatic in placement as some could see several inches in one county, rain in the next. This means a very challenging snowfall map for us. Also keep in mind that some of the snow will melt at times then re-accumulate. This means what you have in your backyard could go/fade as these waves pass through...depending on how long you can keep at snow status. So use caution with model accumulation maps. Look more at “snow depth” to give you an idea if you dare to look at those.
Overall thoughts: Rate, temperatures and low-level wind flow will be the main elements here. The air for much of the atmosphere is actually fairly cold. The debate is on the lowest 4,000 feet. And a degree or two makes a difference!
We appreciate your patience with this setup as I really can’t think of one to compare it to when you have multiple waves like this with a lack of snow cover to the immediate north. We are on this...I promise. In fact, we are not sleeping at this stage :) Stay tuned for more updates...