This is the week of the “Arctic Plunge" arriving into WAVE Country.
The cold will remain the headline over snow, but there will be at least SOME snow to track.
Tonight Rain to brief wet snow. Minor amounts.
Tuesday PM Light snow showers with arctic front. Light amounts.
Wednesday PM Risk for flurries/light snow. Light amounts.
Late Thursday/Early Friday Warm front snow potential. Setup to watch.
No video today but here is a quick look at some of the main features.
Timing....the “moisture" front moves in this evening with rain to snow. Brief accumulations still on the table but amounts look limited. Just watch for slick spots to develop overnight. The “cold” front portion arrives Tuesday afternoon and it will try to squeeze out what moisture is left in the form of snow showers. The wind will blow most of it around creating more of a visibility issue than accumulations. The core of the cold then moves in for Wednesday and Thursday. Cloud cover and wind speed will determine actual temps and wind chills during this period.
Latest data shows a very cold Wednesday morning with wind chills down to dangerous levels...
Wind Chill Warning is looking likely for our northern-most counties and a Wind Chill Advisory for most of WAVE Country...to be issued later today for this cold.
Same story for Thursday morning although seeing a trend it may be as brutal...but I’d still say brutal enough :)
When it comes to snow chances, you can see the GFS ensembles do show snow (blue), and rain (green) chances ahead. A mix (purple) is possible in the transitions (frz rain risk with Friday snow chance ) but mostly snow. You can see the rain to snow tonight. Brief light snow Tue/Wed. And the the warm front snow chance Friday morning that will then lead to a warmer profile and rain. In fact, highs may crack 60 degrees by the end of the weekend :)
As far as snow amounts, GFS again shows light amounts in the beginning. The spread (potential) does show up more for Friday so that will be one to watch for adjustments. I am sure something wintry will happen as we rarely escape Arctic outbreaks without ice or snow.
The map version of the model for Friday morning shows all the possible ideas that could play out. You can see this needs more time in the oven but something to watch.
Yes, we do warm up after this. That is common after big cold outbreaks as the atmosphere likes to balance things out. Signs remains of another “flip” later in February. More on that tomorrow.