One more wintry event to track before we an extended break from the flurry-fest :)
Toward Morning Period of light snow, freezing rain
Next Thursday/Friday Rain to Snow. Setup to watch.
February 13-15 Rain to Snow.
This is a classic setup the next 24 hours in which very cold Arctic air will slowly leave town as warmer air boards the express train in our direction. When the two overlap. things never go well around here.
Setup: Wave of energy will dive southeast over the next 12 hours into IN/OH with a stripe of accumulating snow (light). At the same time, a warm front will develop this afternoon near TX and will quickly race its way to the northeast with an arrival time near sunrise Friday. As it approaches, it will attempt to interact with the “snow” wave and additional light precipitation begins to break out.
Timing: The light snow chance kicks in after 10pm north and spreads down to central/northern KY overnight through say 5 or 6am. Light accumulations are on the table with the heavier amounts closer to the low track and where the air is colder (higher snow ratios). After 6am, a warm “nose” begins to push in from the west/southwest. How quickly this arrives is key. It looks to be enough of a warm layer to start to melt the snowflakes to allow for a light rain to develop. The problem is that the temperature at the ground-level will lag a few degrees from this warmer air aloft. This could lead to icing on the roadways, yet the warm layer may be thick enough to prevent elevated icing on trees/power-lines/etc. After 8am, the warm layer starts to win and we end up with pure light rain or drizzle before easing late morning.
Amounts: Snowfall potential: up to 1″ for many in the light snow locations overnight. 1-3″ possible far north/northeast ...again, where that deeper cold layer will be. Ice amounts look to be under .10″ at this time. Even a light glaze can lead to slick roads. For some, you will experience both....light coating of snow then a light glaze on top of that.
This does look to be an advisory-level event when you combine both types and of course, the timing. Remember, we do warm up as the day wears on to just wet roads and drizzle so this is just a MORNING issue.
If any of the above were to get adjusted, it would be the snow ratios as that could impact the light snowfall amounts +-0.5″ or so. We will just have to trend that carefully overnight.
Warmer air flows in for the weekend with rain/thunderstorms at times next week. There is a risk for this rainy pattern to end on a wintry note about a week from today, but that setup needs more time in the oven.