River flooding will continue to be an issue right into the weekend. While we will be monitoring that, we also will need to keep an eye on the active storm track as colder air starts to get involved.
Tonight: Flurries/brief snow showers
Friday night: Rain or Snow. Setup to watch.
Sunday evening: Light rain or snow.
Monday Night/Tuesday: Snow or rain to start, then likely rain. Setup to watch.
Feb. 23 Rain or Snow
The pattern remains active but now seeing more opportunities for wintry weather to get involved as the storm track shifts more to the south. The main challenge is that we will not be facing Arctic Air to our north. For many of you BOTS’ fans, you are happy about that as that type of air is drier. Instead, we will deal with more “modified" cold air that is juuuuuust cold enough to put precipitation types at risk. This means many frustrating forecasts ahead that will stress out those that love...and hate snow.
Let me break down the risk periods....
Friday night/Saturday... Cooler/colder air will be in place thanks to the Valentine’s Day front. Just how cold is still in question. A strong wave of low pressure will zip by during this period that will likely have snow on its north side, rain south. Where WAVE Country fits into this is still unclear. The modeling is excited about this for sure but you have to keep in mind that if they are too warm or cold on certain layers of the atmosphere, they can flip to a “big snow” to a chilly light rain from one model run to the next. We need more time to iron this one out but something to watch.
Sunday evening... this is more of the clipper-type of wave. It looks to have limited moisture and will be moving fairly quick. Temperatures once again iffy on types.
Next Monday night/Tuesday... modeling IS in really good agreement that a significant low pressure is going to develop near I-10 or I-20 during this period. The track should take it north/east. There will be cold air on its N/NW side to allow for snow. Normally a southern track would nearly lock us in for snow but my concern is the flow aloft wrapping the warm air into the low on its north side. This could then bust us on snow but lead to heavy rain. We really need to see how the Friday/Sunday waves impact us before we can piece this one together but we at least see a significant system of some type moving in.