I am adjusting the title today (as I normally have to do in late winter) so that the focus is on the weekend. But there is still winter to talk about...
Very strong low pressure will move from Missouri northeast into the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. This will bring with it heavy rain and thunderstorms on the southeast side of its track and heavy snow along and northwest of it. In fact, blizzard conditions for the upper Midwest possible.
For us...it will be all about the rain and wind.
Friday daytime: Warm front slowly inches north. Steady light rain mainly for southern KY will slowly push north by afternoon.
Friday night: Warm front moves into Kentucky. Rain shield expands north to the Ohio River. Some thunderstorms with small hail possible at this point as warmer air moves in from the south.
Saturday morning: Warm front location key but is expected to move north between I-70 and I-64. Rain will follow it will a “dry” pocket to the south. Becoming windy and warm.
Saturday afternoon: Cold front approaches from the west. Windy. A squall-line of t-storms is expected to approach from the west. Isolated strong t-storms cells may pop in advance of it. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible with this setup into the evening. Again, warm front location and the “dry” punch key on the severity of this setup. Very heavy rain totals add up by evening that will keep the rivers rising. So it is a catch 22 on this setup. A dry punch would lead to a severe risk yet flash flooding with the t-storms. A stalled warm front would cut down on severe risk but increase overall rain totals.
Saturday night/Sunday midday: Very windy and colder. Gusts up to 50-55 mph possible. Especially north.
A colder pattern will start to develop with snow chances returning to the forecast. More on that in today’s video.