Busy weekend ahead as a strong low pressure passes through the region...
The potential impacts remain the same:
- Severe thunderstorm & a few Tornado Warnings Possible
- Flash Flood Warnings Possible
- River Flooding Warnings already out, and likely to increase
- Wind Advisory Likely with strong general wind gusts
The timing of these impacts will vary.
First round looks to be very late Friday night and trending more likely for Saturday morning/midday. Period of heavy rain. Few thunderstorms.
This first round will either fade or lift to the east/northeast. That part of the forecast will be crucial in how Saturday evening turns out.
2 potential outcomes could develop...
1- The rain band stalls in our region with thick clouds and steady/locally heavy downpours all the way toward sunset. This would reduce the impact from strong/severe thunderstorms west as they approached. We would still need to watch our southern and southwestern counties.
2- The afternoon rain cluster fades and even a few sun breaks develop. This would allow for just enough fuel for either isolated supercells to pop near our area, especially near the Ohio River/southern Indiana. Additional cells would pop all over southern IL, W Kentucky and W Tennessee. The severe potential would then be a factor from early evening all the way until about midnight at the latest. Strong straight-line wind gusts and a few tornadoes would be on the table. In addition, flash flooding. The thunderstorms will be racing at 60-70 mph in forward motion so the weather can change FAST during the late afternoon/evening.
So as you can see, how Saturday afternoon evolves is going to be the driver for Saturday night. We just will have to take it one update at a time.
The rain in general for Saturday/Saturday night will add to the river flooding issues and as mention above, flash flooding at times.
Strong wind gusts in general will develop Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible with the higher values over Indiana. These would be non-thunderstorm related yet could still cause tree damage and a few power outages.
It will be a busy 36 hour period for us but as long as you prepare and stay close to the forecast and alerts, you will be just fine.
More information can be found on the WAVE 3 Weather App.