Quiet weather to enjoy for much of this week. A colder pattern is going to try to rule out weather as we flip the calendar over. This is going to lead to several storm systems that we will need to monitor carefully...
Thursday Minor snow mix possible.
Friday night Either dry or a rain to brief snow setup. Video explains.
Sunday night/Monday next week Southern storm. Setup to watch.
3/6-3/10 Southern track continues. Some wintry potential.
A colder pattern continues to grow in the data for the first 2 weeks of March across the country....including WAVE Country.
There are some questions on how we transition into that pattern (what type of storm system) and just how suppressed the storm track will be during the cold blast. Yes, southern tracks do increase our snow potential but a strong blast can always send the track south of us. And BOTS’ fans LOVE when that happens :-/
Evolving to the cold: stark differences in the modeling when it comes to low pressure move in Wednesday-Friday night. It actually involves a few low pressures. Most of the foreign models are weak with this energy and give us modest rain and perhaps some wet snow changes. The American model (GFS) is more aggressive with the development of these systems and leads to more of a heavy rain/severe weather setup. With the lack of good blocking in the Atlantic, the weaker flow makes more sense right now. This will take a couple more days to fully resolve as timing differences in each of these pieces is leading to the wide range of possibilities.
It is really once we move into Sunday and next week that we get into more of a southern storm track with cold air to our north. That is when the fun and games begins. Will it snow? I don’t know that answer yet of course. But it is certainly our best shot at something that we have had in a while...
Don’t get too excited or too disappointed yet. Just relax and let the game pieces get established first.