Quite the flip in weather topics coming for Friday morning vs Saturday night as we switch from snow to t-storms.
Our next snow chance will be a limited one in scope and time.
The setup begins during the day Thursday when a boundary north of Louisville will develop a band of snow on the radar. I word that way to signal much of this will not reach the ground initially. The more north you are, the better the chance at seeing some snowflakes fly. Most of us will be dry during the day with temperatures warming into the upper 30s and even some lower 40s.
The challenge in the forecast kicks in Thursday night. Colder air with the band to the north will sag south and merge with a low pressure tracking right over the heart of WAVE Country.
As this happens, cooling aloft will lead to a band of snow for our northern sections with precipitation type a bit more in question along I-64, including Louisville. A cold rain to the south.
The “questionable” zone will depend on how much dry air we have in place for when precipitation starts to fall, it cools us down. Will it be enough to allow for snow will more of a sleet/rain mix? We will be right on the edge. Surface temperatures will drop as well but still some question if they will reach the freezing mark or just above. That makes a difference on a cold rain vs a light glaze of ice. My thoughts are that much of this will be a cold rain for city but snow could accumulate in the suburbs briefly.
The main time period looks to be mid-evening Thursday through about 5am Friday for all of this mess, again, for our northern sections of WAVE Country. After 5am, we start to warm things up and any wintry weather will shrink in size.
As far as snowfall amounts, those that can stay snow the longest could see may an inch or two but dry air will cut in that at the start, and the change to a mix could cut into that at the end. Still, some travel impacts could develop with the nocturnal timing.
This isn’t a big system and even the wintry weather will not take place for all locations, so be sure to stay close to the forecast updates for your area.
Our next item to track will be the warm surge and thunderstorms for Saturday night. Severe risk is low but it will be a windy night regardless.
More on that coming soon!